India’s mobile services revenue is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from $30.2 billion in 2023 to $39.3 billion in 2029, driven by the continued rise in mobile service penetration, especially in rural/underserved markets and growth in the 5G-led mobile data services segment, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s India Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1-2025) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 2.5% CAGR over the forecast period due to the growing consumer preference for internet-based communication services, bundling of free voice minutes with mobile service plans offered by operators, and subsequent drop in the voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Mobile data services will however offset this decline in mobile voice service revenue and help the total mobile services market to maintain a considerable growth through the forecast period.
Mobile data service revenue will increase at a healthy CAGR of 9.3% between 2024 and 2029, driven by the growing availability of 4G/5G networks across the country, and increasing consumption of mobile data services, especially with rising adoption of higher-ARPU yielding-5G plans.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 23.9GB in 2024 to 51.5GB in 2029, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back data-centric packages offered by telcos.”
4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions until 2026. 5G subscriptions will surpass 4G subscriptions and go on to account for 67% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2029, driven by the ongoing 5G network expansions. For instance, Vodafone Idea plans to extend its 5G services across all 17 circles by August 2025, having rolled out 5G services in Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Chandigarh, and Patna.
The growth in 5G will also be driven by wider availability and increasing ownership of 5G-enabled smartphones and promotional 5G plans with value-added benefits. For example, Reliance Jio Infocomm (Jio) has launched a new initiative for its prepaid customers, termed the “5G Upgrade Voucher.” This voucher allows subscribers to secure access to unlimited 5G data for a duration of one year, specifically targeting customers who do not have an eligible plan.
Jio will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029 given its extensive 4G network coverage, and 5G network developments across the country catering to the rising demand for high-speed services by customers.
Mahananda concludes: “India’s mobile services landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation, with 5G emerging as the key growth engine amid declining traditional voice revenues. As telcos ramp up 5G deployments and introduce innovative data-centric offerings, the market is poised for a sustained upswing in both usage and revenue. Operators that effectively leverage this data-driven shift and invest in rural penetration and digital inclusion will be best positioned to lead in the evolving connectivity ecosystem.”
