- The global pure-play semiconductor foundry industry’s revenue is projected to swell to a record $165 billion in 2025, up from $105 billion in 2021, a healthy 12% CAGR between 2021 and 2025.
- Advanced nodes (7nm and below) will contribute to more than 56% of total revenue in 2025, driven by AI smartphone, HPC and server chipsets.
- Mature nodes will remain largely flat compared to four years ago, though 28nm will remain the bright spot.
- The introduction of 2nm will shift the mix more towards advanced node revenues, with 2nm alone making up over 10% of the revenue mix in 2027.
The global pure-play semiconductor foundry industry’s revenue will grow 17% YoY in 2025 to exceed $165 billion, up from $105 billion in 2021 and reflecting a 12% CAGR over the 2021-2025 period, according to Counterpoint’s Quarterly Foundry Market Update. The advanced 3nm and 5/4nm nodes are proving pivotal in driving semiconductor revenue growth. While revenue from the 3nm node is estimated to rise by over 600% YoY in 2025 to reach around $30 billion, the 5/4nm node will continue to remain popular, generating over $40 billion, driven by positive node migrations. Overall, these advanced nodes, including 7nm, will contribute to more than half of total pure-play fab revenues in 2025. This surge underscores the industry’s focus on cutting-edge technology to support technology migrations in premium/flagship AI smartphones, the rise of NPU-powered AI PC solutions, and growing demand for AI ASIC, GPU and high-performance computing (HPC) solutions.
Commenting on the semiconductor market revenue, Senior Analyst William Li said, “Looking ahead, the 2nm node, though projected to contribute just 1% to total revenue in 2025, is poised for rapid expansion as TSMC ramps up its new capacity in Taiwan. The node is expected to account for more than 10% of the revenue by 2027. We believe 2nm will become one of the most long-lived and impactful nodes over the next five years or so, surpassing the previous nodes in terms of business contribution, thanks to growing demand from AI and computing applications – from cloud to edge.”
Looking at other nodes, the 20-12nm range is expected to remain steady, contributing 7% to total revenue, as we continue to see some chip applications from mature nodes migrating through these nodes toward advanced nodes.
As a result, mature nodes such as 28nm and higher are expected to see their combined share drop to 36% in 2025, down from 54% in 2021 and indicating a gradual phasing out of legacy technologies. However, revenues are expected to remain largely flat compared to four years ago, with 28nm being the only bright spot among these mature nodes, showing a 5% CAGR.
Overall, the global pure-play semiconductor foundry industry’s revenue is projected to grow by 17% YoY in 2025, reaffirming that advanced process nodes continue to fuel the semiconductor market and technology trends. TSMC, at the advanced node end, is the biggest beneficiary, although Samsung and Intel are not far behind. For the rest of the nodes, UMC, GlobalFoundries and SMIC continue to see healthy demand, even though, in revenue terms, they may not be growing at the pace of the advanced nodes. While innovations in front-end processes with High-NA EUV and other technologies continue, backend packaging processes are also witnessing diverse innovations and revenue opportunities, like through HBM memory integration and the migration to chiplet packaging.
